Tuesday, February 3, 2009

Non-economist comes across rational addiction theory

Andrew Gelman is a professor of statistics and political science at the Columbia University. In a recent blogpost in the blog “statistical modeling, causal inference, and social science” he comments in passing on rational addiction theory – one of the examples used in a discussion on econometrics that he gives his perspetive on:

the study of smoking seems pretty wacky to me. First there is a discussion of "rational addiction." Huh?? Then Ziliak and McCloskey say "cigarette smoking may be addictive." Umm, maybe. I guess the jury is still out on that one . . . .

OK, regarding "rational addiction," I'm sure some economists will bite my head off for mocking the concept, so let me just say that presumably different people are addicted in different ways. Some people are definitely addicted in the real sense that they want to quit but they can't, perhaps others are addicted rationally (whatever that means). I could imagine fitting some sort of mixture model or varying-parameter model. I could imagine some sort of rational addiction model as a null hypothesis or straw man. I can't imagine it as a serious model of smoking behavior.

In response to a comment from an economist who explains briefly that Rational Addiction comes from a seminal paper and has proved influential in health economics, he responds:

My reply to this: Yeah, I figured as much. It's probably a great theory. But, ya know what? If Becker and Murphy want to get credit for being bold, transgressive, counterintuitive, etc etc., the flip side is that they have to expect outsiders like me to think their theory is pretty silly. As I noted in my previous entry, there's certainly rationality within the context of addiction (e.g., wanting to get a good price on cigarettes), but "rational addiction" seems to miss the point. Hey, I'm sure I'm missing the key issue here, but, again, it's my privilege as a "civilian" to take what seems a more commonsensical position here and leave the counterintuitive pyrotechnics to the professional economists.

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